UTXO Analysis peaks at the bottom of the BTC price in the first quarter of 2019

Markets and Prices

"When will the bear market end?" Is the chorus of annoyed and frustrated traders on Twitter crypto. "Soon" is the answer suggested by the latest Delphi Digital report. The "Analysis of Bitcoin Holders Over Cycles" seeks to determine whether the selling pressure that has lowered BTC prices over the last 12 months will decrease, indicating that the market recovery could be imminent.

Read also: BTC makes a health check in 'The State of Bitcoin'

Sign Search in Bitcoin UTXO

<img class = "alignright wp-image-259180″ title=”UTXO Analysis peaks at the bottom of the BTC price in the first quarter of 2019″ src=”https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Screenshot-2018-12-11-at-12.45.52-300×97.png” alt=”UTXO Analysis points to a lower BTC price in the first quarter of 2019 "width =" 198 "height =" 64 "srcset =" https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Screenshot-2018- 12 -11-at-12.45.52-300×97.png 300w, https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Screen-2018-12-11-at-12.45.52-768×247 . png 768w, https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Screenshot-2018-12-11-at-12.45.52-1024×329.png 1024w, https: //news.bitcoin. com / wp-content / uploads / 2018/12 / Capture-2018-12-11-at-12.45.52-696×224.png 696w, https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12 /Screenshot-2018-12-11-at-12.45.52-1068×344.png 1068w, https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Screen-2018-12-11-at- 12.45.52.png 1144w "sizes =" (maximum width: 198px) 100vw, 198px”/>There is a myriad of stories buried in Bitcoin UTXOs, unspent transaction outputs that are combined each time the BTC is sent. The conclusions that analysts are able to draw from this information are becoming more sophisticated. The new complementary report from Delphi Digital is a perfect example. the 14 page document, which completes the research shop original report, sets out the evidence to support the notion that the current bear market could reach its nadir.

Since each UTXO corresponds to the date of the last movement of these coins, it is possible to determine the age of the bitcoins held in portfolios by examining the blockchain. The frequency of UTXO movements can be used to identify cycles that turn merchants into sellers. Although selling seems to be synonymous with downward pressure on prices, this is not necessarily the case. The dormant BTC portfolios used for the first time in a long time may indicate that prices have increased enough to encourage long-term lumber dealers to send their coins to an exchange. The Delphi Digital report draws three largely optimistic conclusions:

  • The sales pressure exerted by long-term holders, mainly those aged 3 to 5, is almost exhausted.
  • We are witnessing another accumulation process by long-term holders, similar to the end of 2014.
  • Using the previous low price schedule against the different bitcoin accumulation points, we can use the current UTXO momentum to strengthen our forecast of an approximate date for a floor price (in the first quarter of 2019) .
  • Who sells Bitcoin?

    <img class = "alignright size-medium wp-image-32818″ title=”UTXO Analysis peaks at the bottom of the BTC price in the first quarter of 2019″ src=”https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/rollercoaster1-267×300.jpg” alt=”UTXO Analysis points to BTC price down in the first quarter of 2019 "width =" 267 "height =" 300 "srcset =" https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/rollercoaster1-267×300 .jpg 267w, https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/rollercoaster1-374×420.jpg 374w, https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01 / rollercoaster1 .jpg 500w "sizes =" (maximum width: 267 pixels) 100vw, 267 pixels”/>It might seem like a bad time to sell bitcoin, BTC currently languishing in the $ 3,600 territory. Although this represents a 74% drop from a year ago, this does not mean that current sellers are unloading their parts at a loss. Users who purchased their coins until early 2017 could now sell them for a minimum profit of 3 times – and potentially multiple others. The report notes "we can assume … older [BTC] The homeowners have exhausted much of their sales efforts, as evidenced by the flattening of … older UTXO groups, associated with the one-year UTXO group reaching a floor and staying flat until the end of the year. first half of 2018. "He continued:

    In the second half of 2018, the one – year UTXO band began to post a positive growth trajectory directly in tandem with the band for one to two years, with the former UTXO bands remaining stable. We are currently witnessing an accumulation process similar to the end of 2014. This would imply a trough.

    Using clever calculations, based on the historical analysis of the Bitcoin blockchain and the activity of the UTXO bands, grouped by age, Delphi Digital strives to predict when the peak retention rate should spread. The authors believe that this conclusion is corroborated by positive exogenous events such as "the planned launch of Bakkt (early 2019) and the Fidelity conservation solution (made available in early 2019)". Delphi Digital With the forecast coming true, the UTXO analysis will gain a new respect among traders who are trying to temporize market cycles.

    What do you think of the Delphi Digital UTXO report and the 2020 price forecast for BTC? Let us know in the comments section below.

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